The Best & Worst Times to Buy a House in 2022 & Beyond

The best time of year to buy a house is during the fall and winter, while the worst time is during the spring and summer months. This seasonality is due to predictable changes in weather conditions, market competition, and home prices, and is a crucial factor in the economics of homebuying. So whether you’re an interested buyer or a real estate professional who wants to inform their clients about the market’s outlook, it’s important to know how these trends influence sales prices.

Read along as we present statistics that explain why certain months are routinely better times to buy a house than others, along with home sales trends and valuable takeaways for homebuyers.

Best Time to Buy a House: October to February

Although there was some unexpected fluctuation due to the COVID-19 pandemic, historically, the best times to buy a house year-over-year is from October through February. This is partially due to the holiday season, but also because of the seasonal changes that occur with pricing and homebuyer competition that create a downswing in the real estate market—especially advantageous for buyers.

Lowest Home Prices Are Typically in January

Median sales prices are more affordable between October and February compared to other months of the year. For example, January 2021 had sales prices listed at $329,242, which peaked at $385,546 in June 2021. Similarly, prices jumped from $376,559 in January 2022 to $424,146 in April 2022. The rise in sales prices between the winter and summer months is drastic, making the winter months a much more optimal time for homebuyers to purchase properties.

In addition, sellers listing in January, rather than the peak season between April and August, are most likely listing for a specific reason or out of necessity, like a death, divorce, or financial issues. This can be presumed because they are choosing to list at a time when home prices are lowest, and they risk spending more time on the market. As a result, these sellers are more motivated to close on a deal quickly, which is beneficial for buyers looking for a great deal on a home.

Higher Median Days on Market in January

Historically, between October to January, the median days a home stays on the market increases, suggesting a less competitive market for buyers. In January 2021 and 2022, homes stayed on the market for 71 and 61 days, respectively. This is higher than June 2021, with 36 days on the market and homes staying on for 34 days.

The longer a home stays on the market, the more opportunities buyers have to search and purchase the home they desire. Also, higher days on the market leads sellers to be more open to negotiations on price, closing date, and other terms that can be favorable to buyers.

More Price Reductions in December

After a home has been sitting on the market without offers or insufficient offers, a typical strategy is to reduce the asking price. December boosts the highest percentage of price reductions at 31.81% in 2020 and 34.46% in 2021. Whereas in June 2021, prices increased by 28.13% and 22.3% in April 2022.

Since there is so much inventory available between April and August, some sellers have difficulty offloading their property, which leaves it sitting after the rush dies down. This makes it a great time for buyers to swoop in between October and February to find a home that has been on the market for longer than expected, as well as get it at a lower price.

In addition, with fewer homebuyers, sellers are willing to cut their asking prices and are more flexible in their negotiations. So while these may be some of the slowest months for real estate listings and inventory, they’re also some of the best months for buyers.

Worst Time to Buy a House: April to August

On the flip side, between April and August is the worst time of year to buy a house. Housing inventory begins to rise, and with the holiday season over, many homebuyers will start looking for new homes. This causes prices to increase and bidding wars to occur.

Higher Listing Prices in April

In 2022, the spring homebuying season started as early as January. The median sale price increased by 14.3% in January 2022 compared to the prior year, with houses selling at a median price of $358,460. In April 2022, the median sales prices increased by 15.5% compared to the previous year, with a median sale price of $424,405.

The increasing sales price during the spring season indicates stiff competition among homebuyers who want more listing options and favorable weather. This season could be an uphill battle for first-time homebuyers whose purchasing power and credit score may not be as strong compared to more experienced investors.

More Homes Sold Above List Price in June

Following a trend of higher listing prices, during the period from April to August, more homes sold above the list price than any other time throughout the year. For comparison, in January 2021, only 33.1% of homes sold above the list price than in June 2021, where 56.3% sold above the list. In addition, so far this year, 58.8% of homes are selling above in April 2022, which is expected to increase throughout the season.

Since home prices are higher during this time and are also being sold over the asking price, buyers are likely to spend much more money than they anticipated, especially between the months of May to August. This makes it an even more difficult market for buyers who are already stretching their financial limits in order to make a home purchase.

Higher Moving Frequency in June

According to Move.org, in 2021, 34% of people moved for their families, and 26% moved for their job. This creates a homebuying frenzy starting in May and extending to August. January and December boast the lowest moving rates at 3%, while there are double-digit percentages in May, June, July, and August, with a June record percentage of 13.

In conjunction with high prices, high inventory, and homes being sold over the asking price, moving frequency also contributes to the seasonal factors of purchasing between the months from April to August. So while these are typically the busiest real estate months for agents, it is much more challenging for buyers to purchase during this time.

If you aren’t sure how your local market is trending, check out Zillow. As the most visited real estate listing website in the U.S., Zillow has a pulse on the latest trends and listings hitting the real estate market. In addition to helping you find affordable properties in your area and the agents who represent them, the platform offers weekly market reports and an interactive home value index tool for visualizing trends.

Visit Zillow

Home Sale Data by Month

Overall, housing inventory has been increasing since 2020⁠—growing from a 3.8 million housing supply in December 2020 to 7 million in October 2021. The median sales price at closing has also surged, with prices going from $365,300 in December 2020 to $436,700 in March 2022. Median days on the market have dwindled from 64 days in December 2020 to only 38 days in March 2022, suggesting that houses are being sold at a faster rate, but at a higher price.

By November 2021, inventory started to drop slightly. However, prices continued to soar, reaching a median sales price of $436,000 at closing in March 2022. The rise in prices can be due to low housing supply coupled with increasing mortgage rates.

(Source: FRED)

Other Key Housing Market Indicators for Buyers

There are additional factors you can become familiar with to gain a full understanding of the current real estate market and the best time of year to buy a house. Aside from seasonality, the following indicators will dictate your buying power and provide insight on whether you should move forward with a purchase:

• Local housing affordability
• Interest rates
• Median days on the market
• Housing inventory
• Time of year
• Market type
• Rental market trends

To read more about these indicators and see how they affect the market in 2022, check out our article 7 Most Crucial Housing Market Indicators for Buying & Selling in 2022. 

Bottom Line

Based on seasonal trends, the best time to buy a house is from October through February due to low demand⁠—owing to the holiday season. These months offer better home prices for buyers and more room for negotiations with the seller. On the other hand, the worst time to buy a house is during the spring season up to early summer, when housing inventory is high, driving the demand and home prices up. Aside from seasonality, other economic factors, such as mortgage rates, may also affect your ability to buy a home.