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Amazon’s Prime Big Deal Days begins Oct. 6, bringing 48 hours of Prime-exclusive deals across more than 35 categories. The shopping rush will extend well beyond Amazon: Adobe expects US consumers to spend $9.9 billion online during Oct. 6–7, up 9.2% from last year.
Small retailers do not have to chase that demand with Amazon-level discounts. In an August survey of 6,000 US consumers, respondents said they expect 43% of their holiday budgets to go to small businesses, representing an estimated $118 billion in spending. Capturing even part of that demand only works if the promotion still leaves enough margin to be worthwhile.
Decide whether to discount
Before launching a counter-promotion, check three things: the gross margin on products you might discount, available inventory, and how price-sensitive your customers actually are.
Price is not the only lever. In the same survey, 47% of respondents said they shop small for unique or higher-quality gifts, 46% to support their community, and 38% for better service or expertise.
Run the margin math first
An analysis of 1,098 North American retail brands found orders rose 12% and conversion increased 11% during October Prime Day 2025. Average order value fell 6% to $120, while revenue rose 5%.
Run the numbers by product before choosing a discount. Fit Small Business’ profit margin and retail markup calculator can help set a minimum margin floor.
Before approving an offer:
- Pick eligible SKUs based on stock and sell-through, not best-sellers alone.
- Set a minimum gross-margin floor for each product.
- Limit quantities or redemptions where necessary.
- Compare expected incremental gross profit with discounts, advertising, loyalty incentives, packaging, and fulfillment costs.
A promotion that moves more merchandise but produces less profit is not automatically a win.
Compete without matching Amazon’s prices
Keep store hours and pickup information current, and promote only products you can confidently confirm are available. Retailers managing larger catalogs should have a reliable way to track inventory and stock levels before advertising an item as ready for pickup.
Instead of a broad markdown, give existing customers early access, a bundle, gift with purchase, or limited loyalty offer. That creates urgency without forcing every product into a direct price comparison with Amazon.
Last year’s analysis also showed year-over-year spending growth rising from 2% on Day 1 to 9% on Day 2. That is a pattern to test, not a rule; some retailers may want to reserve part of their promotion or marketing budget for the second day instead of spending everything upfront.
If you also sell through Amazon
Marketplace sellers have fewer last-minute options. The Prime Big Deal Days deal-submission window has closed, but US Seller Central guidance says Black Friday Week and Cyber Monday submissions remain open through Oct. 20.
For 2026 peak-event promotions, Amazon lists an upfront fee of $100 plus 1.5% of promotional sales, with the variable fee capped at $5,000. Sellers should include those costs in the same margin calculation they use for their own stores.
If inventory is shared across online and store channels, a POS inventory system can help keep stock counts synchronized as sales come in.
Measure profit, not just sales
After the event, track gross-margin dollars, conversion, average order value, redemption, and SKU-level sell-through—not revenue alone. Compare results with the same period last year where useful, but also estimate what likely would have happened without the promotion so a seasonal sales lift is not mistaken for incremental profit.
Small retailers do not need to beat Amazon at its own sale. The useful result is knowing which products can support a promotion, where customers respond without a deep markdown, and whether the extra sales produced more profit. Carry those answers into Black Friday instead of repeating an October promotion that only looked successful on the top line.